PVC market analysis: narrow fluctuations

PVC futures analysis: On May 20, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract was mainly in a narrow range, and the price fluctuation was small. 

The price rose slightly in the morning, but the momentum was very small and then fell slightly, and fluctuated in a small range in the afternoon.

V2509 contract opening price: 4953, highest price: 4975, lowest price: 4935, spread 40, reduced position 895 lots, position: 943039, settlement price: 4953, yesterday's settlement: 4973, down 20, daily trading volume: 692097 lots, deposited funds: 3.267 billion, capital outflow: 9.71 million.

PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market was maintained slightly, and the transaction in the market was light.

From the comparison of valuations: North China fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, East China fell by 30 yuan/ton, South China fell by 10 yuan/ton, Northeast China remained stable, Central China fell by 50 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell by 10 yuan/ton.

The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers remained stable, and some were slightly reduced by 30-50 yuan/ton to promote transactions. At present, the supply digestion is still slightly unsmooth, and the signing of contracts is mainly based on the basic quantity.

The futures narrow range of consolidation is small, the spot market has slightly adjusted the fixed price, and the basis has not changed much.

The basis in East China is quoted as 09 contract (100-180-240), 09 contract in South China (40-80), 09 contract in the North (360-420-450), and 09 contract (400) for some sources in Southwest China.

Spot price and fixed price coexist in the spot market, but both quotation methods have poor feedback on transactions, and downstream enthusiasm for taking goods is relatively poor. Even if there are transactions, they are mostly small orders for just-in-time purchases.

PVC market forecast:

Futures: The PVC2509 contract price showed a small cross star negative column throughout the day, and the trading volume throughout the day was lower than the previous period, and the activity declined. At the close of the midday session, the main domestic futures contracts rose and fell. 

The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) has narrowed, and the distance between the two lines of the KD line at the daily level has been significantly shortened. The position volume has changed very little throughout the day.

It can also be seen from the narrow adjustment of the futures price that the current time point is in a dilemma of rising and falling, and it is trapped in a narrow adjustment situation. There is less guidance from the news level and fundamentals, but when the technical closing line changes slightly, the trend of the futures price may be under certain pressure. We still maintain the previous point of view, and the fluctuation of the futures price observes the performance of the 4880-5020 range.

Spot: Spot market transactions still maintain the state of rigid demand. The demand side has not changed the existing purchasing frequency and purchasing habits under the general tone. Most of them are small orders for rigid demand replenishment, and the spot of intermediaries is basically maintained.

There has been some maintenance at the supply side recently, but the price changes are less affected by supply and demand factors. In the foreign market, international oil prices rose slightly due to signs of a breakdown in the nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran. However, Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating has exacerbated concerns about the US economic outlook and its potential impact on oil demand.

Therefore, this has also limited the increase in oil prices. Overall, in the dilemma of rising and falling futures prices, the spot market has also begun to fall into a trend of narrow adjustment. It is expected that there will be no major changes and directions in the short term.

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