PP Market: July 7 Weak Trend

Domestic petrochemical inventory: The inventory of polyolefins of the two oils is 780,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from last week.

Futures analysis: PP2509 opening price on July 7: 7074, highest price: 7082, lowest price: 7043, position: 405039, settlement price: 7059, yesterday's settlement: 7091, drop: 32, daily trading volume: 171188 lots, deposited funds: 2.001 billion, capital outflow: 53.44 million.

Market drawing mainstream quotation:

Domestic spot market analysis: Today, the domestic PP market is generally weak. Except for the small increase in market prices in the southwest and the stable market prices in the northwest, the market prices in other regions have fallen, ranging from 10-50 yuan/ton. In terms of price: the mainstream price of domestic polypropylene ranges from 6990 to 7240 yuan/ton.

On the cost side, the crude oil market was affected by the expectation that OPEC+ would maintain a large increase in production and the trading was flat during the US Independence Day holiday, which had a certain negative impact on international oil prices. In addition, the PP futures market fell narrowly, and the demand side remained weak. There was a lack of strong momentum in the market, and traders followed the market and operated, and the trading atmosphere was general.

Analysis of the domestic futures market: The night market price of the PP2509 contract fluctuated slightly; it plunged slightly after the opening of the morning session, and then rose and fell; the price showed an "N" trend in the afternoon. As of today's afternoon closing, the PP2509 contract fluctuated throughout the day in the range of 7043-7082, with a spread of 39, and the 09 contract reduced its position by 9584 lots, and the current position was 405039 lots.

Forecast for the future market: In terms of raw materials, in the short term, the crude oil market may be affected by favorable factors such as the traditional consumption peak season in the United States and unfavorable factors such as the geopolitical situation, OPEC+'s position to increase production, and the poor global economy. It is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of related changes on international oil prices. In terms of supply, there are limited changes in the on-site units this week.

Among them, Dalian Organic and Jingbo Polyolefin PP units with a capacity of about 600,000 tons are planned to be shut down for maintenance. There are also two units of Quanzhou Guoheng and Zhejiang Petrochemical with a capacity of about 1.35 million tons, which are planned to resume operation in the latter part of the week, and the supply may increase.

In terms of demand, downstream orders are weak due to the off-season, and downstream factories have no obvious willingness to replenish inventory, or continue to replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Overall, it is expected that the short-term polypropylene market may be weak.

Domestic PP Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic PP spot index on July 7 was 7108.00, down 12, a range of 0.17%.

Guoneng auction statistics: Guoneng Coal Chemical's auction volume today was 1,444 tons, a decrease of 57.43% from yesterday; the transaction volume was 907 tons, a decrease of 57.26% from yesterday, and the transaction rate was 62.81%, an increase of 0.25% from yesterday.

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