Polypropylene: Inventory Drop & Price Rise

Domestic petrochemical inventory: The inventory of polyolefins of the two oils is 810,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from yesterday.

Futures analysis: On June 13, PP2509 opened at 6956, the highest price was 7122, the lowest price was 6933, the position was 456225, the settlement price was 7052, yesterday's settlement was 6980, the increase was 72, the daily trading volume was 634510 lots, the deposited funds were 2.264 billion, and the capital outflow was 130 million.

Market mainstream quotes for wire drawing:

Domestic spot market analysis: Today, the domestic PP market as a whole rose and repaired, and the market prices in various regions rose across the board, with the increase ranging from 10 to 50 yuan/ton. In terms of price: the mainstream price of domestic polypropylene ranged from 6980 to 7260 yuan/ton. International oil prices have fallen.

Although the contradiction between supply and demand in the PP market still exists, the maintenance equipment has been gradually restored, the new orders of downstream factories are limited, and the purchase of raw materials remains rigid demand for replenishment, the futures market has strengthened due to macroeconomic factors, which has boosted the market atmosphere to a certain extent, and the focus of traders' quotations has moved up.

Analysis of the domestic futures market: The night market price of the PP2509 contract fluctuated slightly; it rose significantly after the opening of the morning session, and fluctuated at a relatively high level during the day at the end of the session; the price range was consolidated in the afternoon.

As of today's afternoon closing, the PP2509 contract fluctuated between 6933 and 7122 throughout the day, with a spread of 189, and the 09 contract reduced its position by 34,561 lots, and the current position was 456,225 lots.

Forecast for the future market: In terms of raw materials, the crude oil market may be affected by the continuation of the US sanctions policy on oil-producing countries, the US summer travel peak season and other favorable factors, as well as OPEC+'s maintenance of its position to increase production and the poor global economy.

It is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of related changes on international oil prices. On the supply side, the concentrated maintenance period of the unit is coming to an end. 

The PP units that were overhauled in the early stage have been restarted one after another, and the number of new maintenance is relatively small. The operating rate is expected to increase, and the output will also increase accordingly. In addition, the plan for the release of new production capacity is steadily advancing. It is expected that the PP supply pressure will continue to increase next week.

On the demand side, the downstream is in the seasonal off-season, and the limited number of orders is unlikely to improve. The purchase of raw material PP may maintain rigid demand. Overall, it is expected that the polypropylene market will be in a range in the short term.

Domestic PP Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic PP spot index was 7112.00 on June 13, up 34, a range of 0.48%.

Guoneng auction statistics: Guoneng Coal Chemical's auction volume today was 1,501 tons, a decrease of 32.87% from yesterday; the transaction volume was 1,298 tons, a decrease of 13.98% from yesterday, and the transaction rate was 86.48%, an increase of 18.99% from yesterday.

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