Analisis Mingguan Karet Alam: Dukungan Makro & Pengetatan Pasokan, Harga Melonjak

Natural Rubber Weekly: Macro Support + Supply Tightening, Market Rises in Response

1. Rubber Spot Market Analysis

This week, natural rubber showed a pattern of falling first then rising. At the beginning of the week, increased supply from production areas dragged raw material purchase prices down, overseas arrivals continued to increase, downstream enterprises maintained low operating rates, and spot inventory pressure remained prominent. Amid a bearish atmosphere, rubber prices showed a narrow downward correction trend. As overseas factories increased shipping enthusiasm and rainfall weather emerged, raw material purchase prices stabilized after falling, and cost-side support re-emerged. On the macro front, the commodity atmosphere turned warmer and boosted sentiment, and rubber prices began to recover upward after stopping their decline. However, seasonal supply increases continued to weigh, market trading was relatively subdued, and this limited the overall upside of rubber prices.

This week, the natural latex spot market showed an upward adjustment trend. In the domestic Hainan production area, rainfall disruption intensified, new rubber supply tightened, and raw material and cost prices moved upward. Meanwhile, import concentrated latex arrivals at consumption areas were limited, spot supply pressure was not significant, and traders overall held relatively high inventory costs, with limited willingness to sell at low prices. 叠加 On the macro front, the commodity atmosphere turned warmer and boosted sentiment, and concentrated latex quotations maintained a narrow upward trend. However, downstream product enterprises remained cautious in demand, purchasing only at low prices as needed. Traders found it difficult to sell, and with the expectation that new rubber supply in production areas will recover after weather conditions improve, the marginal weakening of the supply-demand structure to some extent constrained the upside room for concentrated latex.

Market Outlook

1. Rainfall in domestic production areas improves, and the expectation of supply increases rises.

2. Operating rates of tire sample enterprises are expected to rise next week.

3. Qingdao, China inventory continues its destocking trend.

4. Macroeconomic atmosphere disturbances.

2. Natural Rubber Supply Analysis

2.1 Thailand Production Area

This week, rainfall in Thailand production areas increased month-on-month, with relatively frequent rainfall disruptions in the northeastern region constraining cup lump output. Coupled with improved purchasing enthusiasm from upstream dry rubber factories this week, cup lump purchase prices rebounded after falling within the period. In the south, latex was produced normally, but downstream demand was subdued, factory purchasing willingness was weak, and latex prices remained weak.

2.2 Vietnam Production Area

This week, Vietnam experienced relatively concentrated rainfall, with tapping operations periodically disrupted. New rubber output contracted significantly, providing clear support for raw materials and costs. Currently, latex order demand is relatively good, and the diversion of raw materials toward latex production continues.

2.3 Yunnan Production Area

This week, the impact of rainfall in the Yunnan production area was relatively significant. Overall raw material output fell short of expectations, and the actual amount of raw materials available for purchase by local processing plants was relatively limited. Raw materials were tight, and purchase prices were relatively chaotic. Due to raw material shortages and factory profit losses, processing plant production was impacted, with some plants in a shutdown state.

2.4 Hainan Production Area

This week, the Hainan production area was affected by a monsoon trough, with precipitation significantly increasing and tapping operations disrupted. Fresh latex supply on the island was tight, and the actual amount of raw materials available for purchase by local processing plants was relatively limited. Some plants, to ensure order delivery and production needs, showed stronger willingness to bid up raw material purchases, and the center of raw material purchase prices rose slightly.

3. Profit Analysis

3.1 Thailand Production Area

The theoretical production profit of Thailand STR20 improved month-on-week. This week, cup lump purchase prices fell month-on-week, easing cost pressure on the factory raw material side. During the period, futures prices moved up broadly, and factory finished product quotations followed with significant increases. The theoretical processing profit of Thai Standard rubber recovered and improved compared to last week.

3.2 Domestic Production Area: Hainan

This week, the theoretical production profit of Hainan domestically produced state-owned concentrated latex improved. As futures prices oscillated higher, market demand increased significantly. Local processing plants had low finished product inventory and limited sellable supply, and spot circulation tightness rose rapidly, directly pushing natural latex finished product quotations to a阶段性 stage adjustment upward. Raw material prices also showed an upward trend, but spot quotation increases were more significant, thereby driving profit improvement.

4. Downstream Analysis

4.1 Dry Rubber Downstream

The operating rate for China semi-steel tires was 65%. The operating rate for China all-steel tires was 64%.

This week, operating rates of tire enterprises showed divergence. Some semi-steel tire enterprises that had been under maintenance gradually resumed production, and operating conditions improved somewhat. All-steel tires still had a few enterprises with production control and maintenance arrangements, and overall operating conditions remained weak.

4.2 Concentrated Latex Downstream

It is heard that glove factory operating rates in North China are roughly at the 40% level, with some factories already shut down, and some reporting plans to reduce loads or shut down. Affected by summer high temperatures, on-site production efficiency in workshops is low. Additionally, the conventional off-season for demand has led to contraction in new terminal orders, dragging down factory operating willingness. At current raw material price levels, factories are mostly in a wait-and-see mood under order cost pressure, maintaining only small-volume replenishment of rigid demand.

It is heard that Wenzhou foam factory operating rates are roughly at the 50% level. After the domestic foam products industry underwent a phase of capacity adjustment, excess capacity has been basically cleared. Some processing plants have successively added new rubber thread production lines to optimize their product structure. Recently, terminal foam finished product orders have marginally warmed, but competition in the sheet material field remains relatively intense. Meanwhile, as raw material prices have significantly retreated from earlier levels, factory processing profits have recovered somewhat, overall operating loads have risen slightly, and raw material inventory turnover has accelerated. Recently, processing plants have been purchasing raw materials one after another, but replenishment sentiment is cautious, with low-price small-volume replenishment being the main approach.

5. Natural Rubber Price Spread Statistics

Industry News

[Guizhou Tire 30,000-ton Carbon Black Supporting Project Launches Construction Bidding]

On July 31, the Guiyang Public Resource Trading Center released the "Construction Bidding Announcement for the Guizhou Tire Co., Ltd. Annual 30,000-ton Carbon Black Supporting Project."

The project is located in the industrial park of Zhazuo Street, Xiuwen County, Guiyang City, with a total investment of 21.3483 million yuan. The bidding segment investment is approximately 9.7022 million yuan, with a planned construction period of 150 calendar days.

The bidding scope includes new buildings such as power distribution rooms and pump houses, as well as structures such as wet granulation frameworks and finished product storage tank frameworks. The total bidding area is 2,619.66 square meters, covering supporting fire protection, lighting, outdoor roads, and other engineering works.

The deadline for bid document submission is 9:30 AM on August 25.

Guizhou Tire continues to advance its upstream carbon black industry chain layout. Its subsidiary Guizhou Qianjin New Materials currently has 100,000 tons of carbon black capacity. Upon completion, this project will further improve the carbon black self-sufficiency rate, stabilize raw material supply, and reduce logistics procurement costs.

[Konasitong Intelligent Warehouse Main Structure Completed]

Recently, Shanxi Konasitong Rubber Technology Co., Ltd.'s intelligent warehouse project reached an important construction milestone. The 6,700-square-meter warehouse main steel structure framework has been fully completed, with overall progress at 40%, and wall masonry and pipeline embedding are being comprehensively rolled out.

As the core logistics supporting facility for the annual 10-million-unit radial tire project, the intelligent warehouse integrates intelligent sorting, automatic transfer, and WMS digital warehousing systems. Upon completion, it will打通 a full-process digital closed loop from tire inbound, three-dimensional storage, dynamic inventory counting, order sorting to whole-vehicle outbound, solving industry pain points such as traditional manual inventory counting, low storage capacity utilization, and peak-season shipping congestion.

Konasitong was established in March 2024, located in the Xiangyuan Economic and Technological Development Zone in Changzhi City. The Phase I annual 5-million-unit production line was put into operation in 2025, adopting drop-type internal mixers, high-tension calenders, and a "steam + nitrogen" intelligent vulcanization process. It is currently running at full capacity, with a daily output of approximately 7,000 units. Phase II 5-million-unit expansion is being tackled simultaneously, with planned completion by year-end. The intelligent warehouse will directly connect the "intelligent production - smart warehousing - trunk logistics" integrated chain, providing logistics infrastructure support for the 200-million-yuan annual output value upon full production.

[Sinochem Sells 14% Pirelli Stake for 7.6 Billion Yuan]

On July 30, China Sinochem Group transferred 14% of Pirelli shares to Czech billionaire Michal Strnad through a block trade, with a total transaction value of 987 million euros (approximately 7.668 billion RMB), at 6.5 euros per share. After the transaction, Sinochem's holding decreased from 34.1% to 20.1%, losing its position as the largest shareholder. Italy's Camfin returned to the top with 26%, and Czech capital became the third-largest shareholder with 14%.

The core driver of this equity change was not market behavior, but geopolitical and regulatory pressure. In 2015, Sinochem acquired Pirelli for 7.1 billion euros. However, as Pirelli pushed the Cyber Tyre with built-in sensors, the Chinese capital background was viewed as a "data security risk" in Europe and the US. The Italian government invoked "Golden Power" to progressively tighten restrictions year by year, compressing Sinochem's board nomination rights to 3 seats and mandating that holdings be reduced below 9.9%. Under joint US-Italian pressure, the stake reduction became the "toll" for Pirelli to gain North American market access. As Sinochem's remaining 20.1% stake still exceeds the regulatory red line, further reductions are highly likely. This transition from "strategic control" to "passive exit" serves as a geopolitical compliance wake-up call for Chinese enterprises expanding overseas.

[Qingdao Xiangyu Warehouse Fire! Adjacent to Sailun Plant]

At approximately 5 PM on August 2, a warehouse at No. 363 Qixinghe Road, Huangdao District, Qingdao caught fire. Thick black smoke rose from the scene, related videos spread rapidly, and related terms trended on major platforms. This area is adjacent to Sailun and other tire factories. Initially, many people mistakenly thought a production plant had caught fire. Later, official clarification confirmed that the fire was in a third-party storage warehouse.

Firefighters, police, and emergency workers arrived at the scene promptly to handle the fire. The Huangdao District Party Committee Propaganda Department announced that evening that no one was trapped at the scene, no casualties were reported, and the cause of the fire was under investigation.