Analysis of natural rubber price index (July 8)

Index

On July 8, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in Qingdao market was 1715 USD/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market:

In terms of spot market supply:

Abroad: Thailand's overall raw material supply has been steadily increasing. Due to the weak demand for concentrated milk, the price of glue has continued to fall. Dry rubber factories are still adding prices to compete for raw material production, and the price difference between cups of water has narrowed; Vietnam's production areas have entered a seasonal production increase cycle, the weather has improved, the supply of raw materials has increased, and the purchase price has shown a slight correction trend.

Domestic: Continuous rainfall in Yunnan production areas has hindered rubber tapping operations, the output of glue is limited, and the tightening supply of raw materials has pushed up the purchase price; Hainan production areas have been affected by continuous rainfall, the release of new rubber on the island has been slow, and it is difficult to trade concentrated milk at high prices. The profits of processing plants are under pressure, and the sentiment for purchasing raw materials is cautious, and the purchase price of glue has fallen slightly.

Demand: It is understood that the resumption of work of some semi-steel tire companies has been slightly delayed. At present, there is no obvious increase in overall new orders. The pace of enterprise shipments has not changed much compared with the beginning of the month. The delay in the resumption of work is beneficial to the digestion of finished product inventory to a certain extent. Most other companies continue to ship goods on a regular basis. At present, the foreign trade shipments of enterprises are still good, and the performance of domestic sales is average.

List of futures and spot prices

Forecast for the future

The closing price of the main rubber contract today fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price mostly followed the narrow adjustment within the disk range. On the supply and demand side, the price of overseas raw materials fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the demand side was obviously in the off-season, and Qingdao's inventory accumulated slightly. The current natural rubber market is greatly affected by the macro-economics, but it is difficult to form a stable support. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a weak fluctuation within the range in the short term.

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